Viet Vu
Manager of Economic Research
COMMENTARY
By Viet Vu, Manager of Economic Research
As the federal government gears up to set their 2025 policy agenda—and their spending—here are some tips for how to parse the facts from the fluff.
It’s important to look for quiet sunsetting of programs and funding that had been previously announced, but become conspicuously absent. Programs are often more likely to be sunsetted without fanfare.
It’s often much more instructive to look at how dollars are being spent, rather than the framing of an announcement, to evaluate the extent of the commitment. Pro-tip: read the “roll up” table at the end of each section to scan where and when money is being spent.
Public consultation is essential for informing public policy and investment, and getting citizen buy-in. But, the reality is that governments can use taskforces, consultations and the like as a delay tactic, and a way to appear to be taking action without having to do anything substantial (with important exceptions, such the consultation on changes to the Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) tax incentives).
Often, the budget provides a much more detailed look into flagship programs that were announced leading up to the budget. Read closely to see if there have been any changes or clarifications on how programs will be designed and administered.
The budget is a big document, and is the result of complicated negotiations, political calculus, and needs assessments. They often include hyperspecific commitments that don’t impact the overall budget picture, so don’t get bogged down in every detail.
If an announcement would require serious legislative changes, know that it’s probably going to take a while—even if a lot of spending is being committed.
Look at the Minister responsible for each and every program—don’t assume that it’s obvious from the get-go. When there are multiple ministers responsible, look for “lead” Ministers (either through budgetary allocation or language).
Have a skeptical eye on anything that commits most of the money 3-4 years from now. A lot can change, and governments are often keen to hedge their bets—especially if dollars would flow after the next election.
Often, an announcement can sound exciting when it is actually just a rehash of previously committed funds. It’s important to clarify when investment is net new, as opposed to rebranded.